WWDC: Why Didn't AR Take Main Stage?
The Apple developer conference seemed quiet when it came to AR. But was it?
I started seeing comments in my stream wondering if Apple would announce “one more thing” and whether that ‘thing’ would be AR glasses.
I’m not sure where the idea came from. Maybe folks had vaguely heard about the Apple Glass rumours but hadn’t parsed the timelines.
And so there must have been disappointment that Apple didn’t launch a new wearable. In fact, it seemed like “AR” was barely mentioned at all.
Setting The Stage
First, I think Apple’s announcements were massively important for AR. App Clips and Apple-specific QR codes are just two of the key components to their AR vision.
Think of it this way: imagine Yelp! uses both of them. You see an Apple QR code at a local restaurant. You scan it and it opens up a tiny mini-app showing Yelp reviews.
Now, imagine Apple launches glasses. They’ll need markers. They’ll need bite-sized content. But wait! They already have both!
Apple is setting the stage for AR in a profound way without calling it AR.
Here’s my more detailed take. And it’s worth comparing it to Snapchat, which wants to be the “plumbing” which helps drive AR everywhere.
Apple Has An AR Cloud
Sure, it took place off the main stage. But Apple launched an AR Cloud: spatial maps of cities, allowing you to place AR content which can be seen as you walk around.
This is hugely important and puts them in the same category as Google, Snapchat and Niantic (amongst others).
But there are some important caveats.
Apple’s AR Strategy
These moves do what Apple does best: they take their 20 million developers and they point them in a new direction. They are now training an army of developers. But they’re also training all of the restaurants and coffee shops, tourist locations and museums to adopt App Clips and Apple QR codes.
But there’s another way to look at this, and it has to do with taking a guess at timelines: specifically, when will Apple launch glasses?
There are currently two hypotheses:
Launch soon but with limited functionality: in this view, they announce glasses next year sometime, and then start selling the actual devices late next year or early 2022. If this is true, then they have no need to take up time on the main stage. Instead, they would wait until their announcement of new hardware, and accompany it with a launch of a new “operating system for glasses”. And so the absence from the ‘main stage’ would simply mean they’re saving all the good stuff for early next year.
Launch later and blow minds: in this view, AR glasses are still years away. Apple doesn’t want to launch something that doesn’t blow the market apart. And to win the battle for eyewear. In this scenario, Apple has a longer road map. And so we need to look at this year’s announcements as part of a multi-year plan that includes:
Further migration along the SwiftUI path
Further work on their AR Cloud, which they launched in a limited way
Letting developers adopt to widgets and App Clips
More and more work on machine learning and ARKit/Reality Kit
I’m not sure which scenario I land on. But in either case, Apple has clearly set its road map in motion.
And it may well be that Apple itself hasn’t decided. The work you do as developers in the coming year, based on what they announced yesterday, may have a direct impact on how soon we see Apple Glass.
And so my message to you is: create.